Researchers suggest adding uncertainty to catastrophe models may help predictability

(—A small team of researchers with members from Universidad de Granada and Princeton University has found that adding some uncertainty to computer models meant to predict catastrophes such as stock market crashes, rapid desertification of a region, etc. can help make the models better. In their paper published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the team describes how they employed mathematical models that allow for adding in randomness to catastrophe prediction models and what they found by doing so. —> Read More